HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL, INDUSTRIALISASI DAN PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI BERKELANJUTAN DI ASIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31959/jm.v15i1.3673Abstract
Introduction: This investigation examines the intricate causal nexus among international trade liberalization, industrial transformation, and sustainable economic advancement across Asian countries from 2000 to 2023.
Methods: Employing panel data regression methods, including fixed-effects models, this quantitative inquiry analyzes secondary datasets from the World Bank's Development Indicators and the Asian Development Bank, incorporating Granger causality testing and impulse-response function analysis across Southeast and East Asian nations.
Results: Empirical evidence reveals bidirectional causality between trade openness and industrialization, with coefficients of 0.347 (p<0.01), demonstrating reciprocal reinforcement mechanisms. Industrialization has dual effects on sustainability dimensions: it increases human development indices by 0.428 percent while simultaneously increasing carbon emissions by 0.561 percent per 1 percent increase in manufacturing value added. Threshold analysis identifies a critical inflection point at USD 8,500 per capita GDP where industrialization-environment trajectories reverse, corroborating Environmental Kuznets Curve hypotheses. Variance decomposition indicates trade liberalization explicates 34.7 percent of industrial variation, while industrialization accounts for 28.4 percent of sustainability outcome fluctuations.
Conclusion: Findings necessitate recalibrating policy toward integrative frameworks that harmonize trade expansion, sustainable industrial upgrading, and ecological preservation through green technology adoption and strengthened regional institutional governance.
Keywords: Asian Economies, Economic Development, Environmental Sustainability, Sustainable Industrialization, Trade Liberalization
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