THE EFFECT OF INFLATION, INTEREST RATES, AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ON THE RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE IN INDONESIA IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF ISLAMIC ECONOMICS FOR THE PERIOD 2015-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31959/jm.v15i2.3682Abstract
Introduction: The stability of the rupiah exchange rate is essential to the Indonesian economy, especially amid intense global dynamics between 2015 and 2024. This period is marked by fluctuations in commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainty. This study aims to analyse the influence of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the Rupiah Exchange Rate and to interpret these findings from the perspective of Islamic economics, which emphasises real stability and justice. The research method uses a quantitative approach, using secondary quarterly data.
Methods: The analysis was conducted in EViews 12, employing panel data regression with the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) following panel model selection testing. The dependent variable is the rupiah exchange rate, while the independent variable includes inflation, interest rates, and GDP.
Result: Data is obtained from official publications of Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency. The results of the study show that inflation has a positive but insignificant effect on the rupiah exchange rate. Meanwhile, interest rates have a positive and significant effect, meaning that interest rate hikes encourage rupiah appreciation through inflows of foreign capital. GDP also has a positive and significant effect, indicating that real economic growth strengthens the rupiah exchange rate. From an Islamic economic perspective, these findings are in line with the concept that the strength of currency value is sustained by real economic activity, stable monetary policy, and the avoidance of speculative practices. The stability of the rupiah exchange rate during the study period was primarily influenced by fundamental variables such as interest rates and GDP, whereas inflation had no significant effect. This shows that stable real and monetary sector-based economic policies align with Islamic economic principles in maintaining the currency's value.
Keywords: GDP, Inflation, Interest Rate, Islamic Economy, Rupiah Exchange Rate
References
ALfriyalnti, N., & Pralseltiyo, L. (2021). Thel ELffelct of Inflaltion alnd ELconomic Growth on thel Rupialh ELxchalngel Raltel in thel Short alnd Long Telrm in 2010-2018. Journall Of Islalmic ELconomics, 1(1), 24-40. 2018. 1.
ALstuti, Rini Puji, Shintal Ralhmalwalti, ALnd Ronal Malrdhaltilal. 2025. "Nusalntalral Relselalrch Journall ALnallysis of Balnk Indonelsial's Talsks in ALchielving alnd Malintalining Rupialh ELxchalngel Raltel Stalbility through Moneltalry Policy." 1(ALralfalh 2023):289–92.
Circulalting, Monely, Intelrelst Raltels, D. AL. N. Delbt, ALbroald, Falculty of ELconomics, Univelrsity of Lalmpung, alnd Balndalr Lalmpung. 2022. "Indonelsialn Printing Journall ( JII )." 1(12). doi:10.58344/Jii.V1i12.738.
ALnd theln thelrel's Yogal Putral, alnd ALmin Walhyudi. 2023. "Inflaltion Control Melchalnisms: ALn Islalmic ALpproalch to Conselrvaltion." 8(30):508–30.
Intelrelst, Tribel, Gross Domelstic Product, alnd Valluel. 2022. "Thel Rellaltionship beltweleln Consumelr Pricel Indelx, Intelrelst Raltel, Gross Domelstic Product, alnd ELxchalngel Raltel in Indonelsial." 1(4):49–61.
Citral Pelrmaltalsalri, Nurul Hudal. 2022. "ALs-Syirkalh : Islalmic ELconomics & Finalnciall Journall." ALs-Syirkalh: Islalmic ELconomics & Finalnciall Journall 1(1):39–56. doi:10.56672/ALssyirkalh.V3i3.252.
Dalchi, Indrialnal, Malrgalrelthal Selmbiring, Nurul ALzmi, Gross Domelstic Product, alnd ELconomic Growth. 2025. "Thel ELffelct of Invelstmelnt alnd Intelrelst Raltels on GDP in Lowelring thel IS Curvel in Indonelsial." 4(2):821–32.
Faldilalh, Tri ALyu, Nidial Izmi, ALzizalh Baltubalral, ELlisalbelth Talmalral, Raltu Hutaluruk, ELconomic ELducaltion, alnd Meldaln Staltel Univelrsity. 2025. "ELxchalngel Raltel alnd Naltionall Incomel Introduction To Malcroelconomics : Ballalncel Of Traldel ,." 5451–61.
Falridal, ALlimaltul. 2021. "ALnallysis of thel Melchalnism of Buying alnd Sellling Currelnciels (ALl-Shalrf) ALccording to DSN-MUI Faltwal No. 28/MUI/III/2002." 12(2):137–50.
Faltimalh, Faltial, Melmelt Calsmalt, Malthelmaltics Study Progralm, alnd Opeln Univelrsity. 2024. "Linelalr Relgrelssion Modelling to Preldict Sallels Valluel in Pt Goodielbalg Custom." 5(Selptelmbelr):1–13.
Fitri, Calrinal, ALrtikal Putri ALulial, Riskal Oktalpelrinal, Gusgalndal Surial Malndal, ALnd Univelrsitals Sinalgalpelrbalngsal Kalralwalng. 2025. "ELconomic Relvielws Journall." 4:749–61. doi:10.56709/Mrj.V4i2.722.
Globallizaltion, Impalct, Miftalkhur Rohmalh, Turmudzi Balsyir, Dalrul ALbror, alnd Fitrial Nur Malsitoh. 2024. "Malcroelconomic Policy Towalrds Stalbility." 9(1):1–24.
Scielncel, Journalls, alnd Finalnciall Scielncels. 2025. "Finalvelst: AL Scielntific Journall of Finalnciall Scielncel." 2:1–8.
Inflaltion, Influelncel ALnallysis, Intelrelst Raltels, alnd D. AL. N. ALmount. 2024. "ALnallysis of thel Influelncel of Inflaltion, Intelrelst Raltels alnd Monely Supply on ELxchalngel Raltels." 7(2):772–79.
Inflaltion, Influelncel, Intelrelst Raltels, Rupialh ELxchalngel Raltel, ALulial Istingalnalh, alnd Sri Halrtiyalh. 2021. "Gross Domelstic alnd Monely Supply to thel Compositel Stock Pricel Indelx (JCI) on thel Indonelsial Stock ELxchalngel (IDX) for thel Pelriod 2010 to 2019." 2(2):245–52.
inflaltion, influelncel, elxtelrnall delbt, alnd elxchalngel raltels. 2022. "Thel ELffelct of Domelstic Inflaltion alnd ELxtelrnall Delbt on thel Rupialh ELxchalngel Raltel 1)." 29–39.
Lalmalhalralni, Celralh Ismi, Rosydallinal Putri, Islalmic Univelrsity, Raldeln Staltel, Intaln Lalmpung, alnd Balndalr Lalmpung City. 2024. "Thel ELffelct of Feldelrall Relselrvel (Feld) Intelrelst Raltels on Calpitall Outflows in Indonelsial in thel Pelrspelctivel of Islalmic ELconomics Thel ELffelct of Feldelrall Relselrvel (Thel Feld) Intelrelst Raltel on Calpitall Outflows in DI." 2(12).
Malnalgelmelnt, Journall, Businelss Krisnaldwipalyalnal, alnd Ismalil Ralzalk. 2025. "Krisnaldwipalyalnal Journall of Businelss Malnalgelmelnt." 13(2):157–70.
Omelgal, Rufalidalh Kalllital, Novialtus Shallelhal, ALnd Rini Puji ALstuti. 2025. "Journall of Nusalntalral Relselalrch on Inflaltion alnd Delflaltion Control by Celntrall Balnks through Moneltalry Policy Writing: Journall of Nusalntalral Relselalrch." 1:221–26.
Libralry, Scielncel Study Progralm, Falculty of Customs, U. I. N. Sunaln, alnd Kallijalgal Yogyalkalrtal. 2021. "Delscriptivel Staltistics als al Selt of Informaltion." 16(1):40–59.
Pralmono, Sigit, ALugalstal ELkal, ALnd Ralsal Putral. 2024. "Controlling Inflaltion through Moneltalry Policy alnd Fiscall Policy in Indonelsial: AL Muslim ELconomic Pelrspelctivel M . Umelr Chalpral." 1483–90.
Relzeltal, Frilal, ALris Soellistyo, ALnd Muhalmmald Khoirul Fuddin. 2024. "Thel Influelncel Of Forelign ELxchalngel Relselrvels , ELxports , Imports , Inflaltion , Gross Domelstic Product ( GDP ) ALnd Monely Supply On ELxchalngel Raltels In ALselaln Countriels." 12:279–90.
Rofi'i, Yulialnto Umalr. 2023. "Thel ELffelct of thel Consumelr Pricel Indelx, Monely Supply, Gross Domelstic Product, Intelrelst Raltels, alnd Ballalncel of Palymelnts on thel Rupialh ELxchalngel Raltel." Journall of ELMT KITAL 7(4):1139–48. doi:10.35870/ELmt.V7i4.1568.
Salhlal, Hilmialtus, ALris Sirelgalr, Dialn ALyu ALndrialni, alnd ALsalhaln Univelrsity. 2025. "Thel ELffelct of thel Rupialh ELxchalngel Raltel alnd Inflaltion on Gross Domelstic Product in Indonelsial." 4307(ALugust):3897–3902.
Salri, ALnggi Novital, Falculty of ELconomics, alnd Diponelgoro Univelrsity. 2023. "Thel ELffelct of ELxport Raltels alnd Inflaltion on ELxchalngel Raltels During thel Covid-19 Palndelmic in Muslim-Maljority Countriels." 9(03):3212–16.
Schumalchelr, Michalell, Sukmal Kalrtikal, ALnd ALnals Mallik. 2025. "Moneltalry Policy alnd Its Implicaltions for thel Indonelsialn ELconomy in thel Pelrspelctivel of Islalmic ELconomics." 8(1):25–47.
Shofial, ALmallial, Ichsaln Iqball, alnd ALrticlel Informaltion. 2024. "Inflaltion in aln Islalmic Pelrspelctivel."
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
Citation Check
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ahmad Zaki Alhafidz, Rahmat Fajar Ramdani, Diah Mukminatul Hasimi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Access and Licensing
All articles published in Jurnal Maneksi (Management Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi) are available immediately upon publication without any embargo period. No registration or subscription fees are required to access our content.
To facilitate clarity and ease of reuse, Jurnal Maneksi (Management Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi) adopts Creative Commons licenses. By default, all articles are published under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0). This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that proper attribution is given to the original author(s) and source.
Copyright Policy
Authors publishing in Jurnal Maneksi (Management Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi) retain copyright over their work. By submitting and publishing with Jurnal Maneksi (Management Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi), authors grant the journal the right of first publication under their chosen open-access license. This ensures that authors maintain full control over their intellectual property while enabling broad dissemination and reuse of their work.
Authors are also encouraged to:
- Share their published articles in institutional repositories or personal websites, ensuring proper acknowledgment of initial publication in Jurnal Maneksi (Management Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi).
- Enter into non-exclusive agreements for further distribution, such as including their articles in books or other publications.
